Futarchy · decision markets
Decide with information, not instead of it.
For each proposal, two conditional markets forecast the same measure of success: one if it passes, one if it doesn't. Only the branch that happens settles. The gap is information for the DAO — the vote stays with the DAO.
Proposals
How to read a decision market
Same question, two worlds.
1 · Pick a metric
Agree what success means
Usually a token price over a fixed window — GNO for Gnosis DAO, PNK for Kleros DAO, ETH for Ethereum upgrades.
2 · Trade both branches
Price “if yes” and “if no”
Traders who think the proposal helps buy the metric on the YES branch. Trades on the branch that doesn't happen unwind.
3 · Read the gap
Impact, not a verdict
Impact = (YES − NO) ÷ NO. Small gaps inside the noise band mean the market sees no meaningful difference.
Track record
What markets said, what DAOs did.
Every closed proposal on Seer Futarchy, with the impact shown at close and the DAO's outcome.
6 / 6
Decisions went the way the market leaned.
Counting resolved proposals with a non‑zero impact estimate. KIP‑81 is excluded: it priced a level, not an impact. Correlation, not proof — and the decision was always the DAO's.
| Proposal | Impact at close | Impact | Outcome |
|---|
Organizations
DAOs using decision markets
| Organization | Active | Proposals | Chain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gnosis DAO | 0 | 6 | Gnosis |
| Kleros DAO | 0 | 4 | Gnosis |
| Ethereum Active market | 1 | 1 | Gnosis |
| VeloraDAO | 0 | 0 | Ethereum |
| Aave DAO | 0 | 0 | Ethereum |
Proposals, prices and outcomes: public snapshot of futarchy.seer.pm, captured 19 Oct 2026, 21:55 EDT.