Risk Pricing · market estimates of default

Default risk, side by side.

Markets estimate the yearly probability of default for 33 DeFi assets. Compare them with each other — and with your own exposure — instead of reading a single yes‑or‑no price in isolation.

Q3 2026 · trading closed 30 SepQ4 2026 · coming soon

Assets priced33ETH, USD, BTC and fund based

No to All46.52%chance none defaults this year

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Low < 2%Moderate 2–5%High 5–10%Critical ≥ 10%Bands as used on Seer Risk Pricing (yearly PD).

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Chance at least one defaults this year

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Expected yearly loss if a default wipes out the position

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Upper bound: assumes total loss on default and independent events, the same assumption behind No to All.

Market probability of default by asset
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These are market estimates, not ratings, audits or insurance. Thin markets can be wrong in either direction. Figures: final prices of the Q3 2026 market on risk.seer.pm (trading closed 30 Sep 2026), captured 19 Oct 2026.